By Brian Mulligan

The Florida Derby played a part in history last year, as Barbaro became the first horse since Needles 5 decades ago to win the Kentucky Derby off a 5-week layoff. Barbaro didn’t have it easy winning last year’s Derby renewal at Gulfstream, but there is nothing wrong with looking back to see how he accomplished the feat.

The son of Dynaformer was coming off a Gulfstream prep as he previously handled the slop taking the 9 furlong Holy Bull with a 95 Beyer.

Speed was king in the Florida Derby last year. The runners that were one through 5 after 6 furlongs finished one through 5. Barbaro had a golden trip. He sat just off the speed of Sharp Humor after bobbling at the start, reached even terms with the leader on the far turn, then wore down that foe to get up late.

Humor gained status in the defeat, as he was 3 clear of Sunriver with longshots Sam’s Ace and Hesanoldsalt, both tactical players, running 4th and 5th respectively.

Know that this year, coming from the clouds won’t be easy.

Just like with any big race, bettors should pay attention to what is said coming to the race but you have to read in between the lines. Nick Zito, who has repeatedly proven he can get a horse to peak in Kentucky, sounds like he is trying to convince himself that Boogie Boggs is ready to tackle stars in this year’s $1 million Florida Derby. Zito: “You’ve got to take some chances when they’re doing good, particularly with young horses. That’s my style. You can’t learn anything about them leaving them in the barn. You have to give them a chance. Just going a distance for the first time can make all the difference. Look at this horse that just won.”

Logic would envision a re-run of the Fountain of Youth this Saturday with Nobiz Like Shobiz sitting out this dance. Stormello will again try to steal the race and Scat Daddy will try to run him down.

Adore the Gold also lost nothing in defeat in the FOY. After pressing the issue the entire way, he only slightly faltered to miss by a length. 

Michael Matz is seeking a repeat in the Fla. Derby with Chelokee, a lightly raced colt that is just starting to fill out. The runner has the blood to make some noise as his dam was in the money in 16 of 25 to bank nearly $240K and she dropped near $300K earner Mymich. Another Barbaro?

Birdbirdistheword has no speed, was 13 lengths off the pace in last and that is a tough way to go.

Imawildandcrazyguy and Notional are hard to really separate. They were together in the Risen Star then Notional was rested for this fray. Notional is from a modest clan as his only kin to race has earned about 4 grand a start.

Johannesburg Star was 31-1 in his last race, saw all the heels, and is looking at a similar fate.

Here’s is how the race should unfold: Adore the Gold and Stormello will likely go tooth and nail early once again with a ton of horses in the 2nd flight starting with Chelokee, Notional, Scat Daddy and maybe Johannesburg Star.

When they turn for home it will be the same holy threesome that vied in the Fountain of Youth fighting it out so if you want to take a shot at a price, give Notional or Chelokee a look. You are looking at about 4-1 with Notional but the other horse, trainer by Barbaro’s guy Matz, will be value, they just don’t know how good the horse is just yet.

Matz in the Chicago Tribune, Matz: Right now, I’d love nothing more than for this horse to run well and go back to the Kentucky Derby. Whether I have the same shot as I did last year nobody will know. But we’re trying.”