They Are At The Post - THE EFFECT OF TURF RAILS OUT FOR 6F SPRINTS BY POST POSITION FOR HOLLYWOOD PARK

THE EFFECT OF TURF RAILS OUT FOR 6F SPRINTS BY POST POSITION FOR HOLLYWOOD PARK

Friday, 18 May 2007

By Mike Benitez of the DAILY SCHTW

We’ve all heard the chatter by the horse racing commentators about the effect of the turf rails being out so many feet and it favors this type of runner and so-so.

Our first chart is the winning post positions for the six furlong turf sprint races with all rail positions included through Wednesday May 16^th at Hollywood Park.

	All positions	Sprints:	Sprints:	Sprints:
Post		Total	Total	PP
Position:	6	Starters:	Winners:	Win %:
1	3	13	3	*23.08%*
2	2	13	2	*15.38%*
3	2	13	2	*15.38%*
4	2	13	2	*15.38%*
5		13	0	*0.00%*
6	2	11	2	*18.18%*
7	1	7	1	*14.29%*
8	1	6	1	*16.67%*
9		3	0	*0.00%*
10		2	0	*0.00%*
11		1	0	*0.00%*
12
*TOTALS:*	13	95	13

However, the following charts for 10 feet, 15 feet and 20 feet are included to analyze the effect of the turf rails out with more clarity (Please note that there have been no turf sprints when the rail position was set at zero):

Rail	10 Feet	Sprints:	Sprints:	Sprints:
Post		Total	Total	PP
Position:	6	Starters:	Winners:	Win %:
1	2	4	2	*50.00%*
2	1	4	1	*25.00%*
3		4	0	*0.00%*
4		4	0	*0.00%*
5		4	0	*0.00%*
6		4	0	*0.00%*
7	1	3	1	*33.33%*
8		3	0	*0.00%*
9		2	0	*0.00%*
10		2	0	*0.00%*
11		1	0	*0.00%*
12
*TOTALS:*	4	35	4

Rail	15 Feet	Sprints:	Sprints:	Sprints:
Post		Total	Total	PP
Position:	6	Starters:	Winners:	Win %:
1		5	0	*0.00%*
2		5	0	*0.00%*
3	1	5	1	*20.00%*
4	2	5	2	*40.00%*
5		5	0	*0.00%*
6	1	4	1	*25.00%*
7		3	0	*0.00%*
8	1	2	1	*50.00%*
9		1	0	*0.00%*
10			0	*0.00%*
11
12
*TOTALS:*	5	35	5

Rail	20 Feet	Sprints:	Sprints:	Sprints:
Post		Total	Total	PP
Position:	6	Starters:	Winners:	Win %:
1	1	4	1	*25.00%*
2	1	4	1	*25.00%*
3	1	4	1	*25.00%*
4		4	0	*0.00%*
5		4	0	*0.00%*
6	1	3	1	*33.33%*
7		1	0	*0.00%*
8		1	0	*0.00%*
9			0	*0.00%*
10			0	*0.00%*
11
12
*TOTALS:*	4	25	4

To complete our analysis we look at the running profiles for the thirteen races run:

5 winners came from the WTW (wire to wire) style
4 winners came from the S/P (stalker/presser) style
3 winners came from the M (mid-pack) style
1 winner came from the C (closer) style

At the DAILY SCHTW we break our running profiles down into 4 very distinct categories:

WTW (wire-to-wire)—includes the pacesetter and dueling horses within ½ length of each other at the 2^nd running call.
S/P (stalker/presser)—any winner that was from ¾ to 2½ lengths behind the leader at the 2^nd running call.
M (middie)—Any winner that was 2¾ to 6 lengths behind the leader at the 2^nd running call.
C (closer)—Any winner that was over 6 lengths behind the leader at the 2^nd running call.

However, when we break the running profiles down by the turf rails out positions we get the following:

Date:	Turf RailPosition:	WinningPostPosition:	WinningRunning Profile:	MutuelPayoff:	Comments:
	*Sprints:*
25-Apr-07	10 feet	2 of 10	C	$106.80	Pearson/Potts
3-May-07		1 of 11	WTW	$58.20	Glatt/Court-1st time starter
6-May-07		1 of 6	S/P	$6.00	Drysdale/Talamo
		7 of 8	WTW	$8.00	Shirreffs/Smith
*Average*	*Mutuel*			*$44.75*


27-Apr-07	15 feet	3 of 5	WTW	$6.60	Mendoza/Espinoza -Fri Nite
28-Apr-07		6 of 7	M	$6.00	O'Neill/Baze M C
9-May-07		4 of 9	M	$30.60	Mendoza/Chavez
11-May-07		8 of 8	WTW	$10.00	Lobo/Blanc-Friday Nite
		4 of 6	S/P	$43.80	Mendoza/Cohen-Friday Nite
*Average*	*Mutuel*			*$19.40*



26-Apr-07	20 feet	3 of 6	S/P	$11.40	Truman/Espinoza
4-May-07		1 of 5	M	$4.80	Becerra/Solis
16-May-07		6 of 6	WTW	$3.20	Koriner/Gryder
		2 of 8	S/P	$6.80	Stein/Blanc
*Average*	*Mutuel*			*$6.55*

From the raw data supplied you can now analyze a 6F turf sprint race with regard to the rails out positions in conjunction with running profiles.

Our next article will look at the turf route races at Hollywood Park

We will continue to keep you updated through this forum!

Last Updated ( Friday, 18 May 2007 )

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