| 3 YEAR OLDS VERSUS OLDER RUNNERS | ||||
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| Friday, 03 August 2007 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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By Mike Benitez of the DAILY SCHTW We continue to track the progress of the younger three olds versus their elders. We’ve included the table below showing every race where the younger three year olds have challenged their elders from April 25th (opening day at Hollywood Park) through July 30th:
We’ve also included the data just for the first two weeks of Del Mar above to further assist in our analysis. Now we’ll analyze the data above and attempt to gain some handicapping insights when faced with the scenario of the younger runners facing their elders. At this juncture we see that the sheer number of three year olds starting is 1,276 from a total of 2,209 runners which is 57.76%. However, this percentage is decreasing and the number of older runners starting at Del Mar is slightly greater. The three year olds starting at Del Mar total 178 starters from 364 total runners (48.9%). These numbers really stand out when we look at the maiden races on both surfaces the three year olds started 991 of 1,462 runners (67.78%) have been the younger three year olds. So considering that the three year olds represent over two-thirds of the total runners, they only manage to garner 95 winners from the 995 runners (9.55%). On the other hand, the elder runners produced 53 winners from 471 starters (11.25%). At Del Mar, the three year olds started 119 from 173 total starters (68.79%) so they still represent slightly over two-thirds of the starters. However, the three year olds have managed only 10 winners from the 119 starters (8.4%) while their older rivals have garnered 8 winners from 54 starters (14.81%).The vast majority of the winners in the maiden claiming races will step up to the Starter Allowance ranks. The early part of the year found the older runners having an advantage but that’s no longer the case. While the number of starters favors the younger three olds with twenty-five more starters, the number of winners and therefore the percentages certainly favor the older runners. The three olds are 10 of 100 (10%) while the older runners are 14 of 75 (18.67%) over both surfaces. However, through the first two weeks at Del Mar we find that the younger three year olds have a slight advantage winning 2 races from 16 starters (12.5%) compared to the older runners having 1 win from 9 starters (11.11%) with the younger rivals having 7 more starters.The Maiden Special Weight winners typically move into the Allowance races and we see that the younger three year old perform well in this category as they are 19 of 136 (13.97%) compared to their elders with a record of 36 of 288 (12.5%) while the elders have started two-thirds of all the runners. This percentage favored the younger runners significantly earlier in the year and now the margins or narrowing. At Del Mar we find the three year olds are 2 for 35 (5.71%) while their older rivals are 14 for 101 (13.86%) favoring the older runners which account for 74.26% of all starters.In the straight claiming races we see that the younger runners have a slight advantage on a percentage basis. The three year olds went 4 for 34 (11.76%) while the older runners went 6 for 63 (9.52%) with the elders representing 64.95% of the starters. As the year has progressed we’ve seen the three year olds even hold their own when the older runners had a substantial advantage from a percentage basis. In very limited data, the younger three year olds hold the advantage winning 14.29% versus 7.14% for the older runners at Del Mar.We look at the overnight stakes races and I must state right here that these races were conducted on California Gold Rush Day and all the races were glorified restricted state bred affairs. We had first race other than the bogus California Breds and the older runners hold the advantage although the data is too limited to come to a complete conclusion. Therefore, we’re not surprised by the virtual dead-heat in results. Finally, we had a case where the younger three year olds took on older in a graded stakes race. However, this was the G1 American Oaks where the lone older filly hailed from the southern hemisphere and was only six months older than the northern hemisphere entrants. At Del Mar we had a younger runner take on older in a G1 race where the older runner prevailed.In conclusion, after the final week of Hollywood Park’s meet the three year olds were holding their own quite well and their percentages were improving as they year drew on. However, through the initial two weeks of Del Mar the older runners must be given extra attention when handicapping. We’ll continue as the week’s progress. |
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